Rebrands are expensive, disruptive, and, done right, genuinely worth it. But not every brand problem needs one. A lot of what looks like a brand problem is really a consistency problem or a positioning problem.
Refresh when: the strategy is sound, the audience hasn't changed, and the visual system just hasn't aged well. A refresh tightens type, color and application without discarding equity.
Rebrand when: the business has meaningfully changed, the audience has shifted, or the current identity is actively working against you. In those cases refreshing is patchwork, it looks like progress but doesn't fix the underlying misalignment.
The honest test: if you rewrote the positioning today, would the current identity still fit? If yes, refresh. If no, rebrand.